Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
